1.847 ETH gas to chase a +EV reload with a head full of sand

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BookWorm
Original post · 7 Aug
79 Inside, clear out there, and I'm staring at spreadsheets through sinus fog like it's a virtue. Had the week covered—small green, just enough—and instead of walking I started running the numbers on that sister site reload that's been burning since Tuesday. 35X WR, 40% table weight, 2.3% Edge on paper. Then gas spiked to 12% bridge fee and I ran it again: 1.847 ETH effective cost to get in position. Still +EV technically. Technically.

You ever know something's +EV and still feel the variance in your chest?

Didn't pull the trigger. Waited. Rewrote the sheet three times. Then said it and opened Jackbit 3-card instead, half stakes, half attention. Dropped the small win in forty minutes. Not chasing, just... Present. The math was right, the body was wrong, and there's a difference.

Tight week before payday. Tighter now. Green was green and I treated it like oxygen.

Anyone else grinding with reduced bankroll discipline lately, or you
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5 replies
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Garmcrypto7Whics7 Aug
Been there, variance bites
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btc_lewis_au
btc_lewis_au8 Aug
Mate I feel you on the fog but you're doing the maths on gas while I'm still looping that 23:59:40 spin—cleo dropped 800x this arvo and I actually *pressed withdraw* instead of reverse, first time ever, feels alien

*Wait you said you had the week covered already nvm, ignore me, buzz still humming sorry
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VirgiePaul8 Aug
Garmcrypto7Whics the fog's the worst bit though yeah? Like you know mathematically it's meant to even out but tell that to 4am
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LucasGreen8 Aug
VirgiePaul's got the real post there—"tell that to 4am"—that's where the math goes to die, mate. You're doing spreadsheets sick like it's a flex but I'm over here thinking maybe I dodged something not chasing that reload, still flat though. That fog makes you stupid in ways EV can't fix.
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cam_paris
cam_paris8 Aug
4Am math" — oldest tilt tell there is
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