Are election markets trustworthy predictors?
RiskyTrailTaker
Original post · 28 Oct 2024
I always hear that Vegas knows everything better than anyone, but it seems like all the polls are saying Kamala’s way ahead while the markets all have them tied or Trump leading. Do the bookies know something the pollsters don’t?
I also read that they got it way wrong the last two elections, saying Hilary would cruise and saying Donald would win right up until like a day before the election, so maybe this is all a bunch of bullshit. Not sure if I’d bet on it either way, but I’m just trying to get a feel for where the election actually stands rn. Thx
I also read that they got it way wrong the last two elections, saying Hilary would cruise and saying Donald would win right up until like a day before the election, so maybe this is all a bunch of bullshit. Not sure if I’d bet on it either way, but I’m just trying to get a feel for where the election actually stands rn. Thx
4 replies
Dr.peeper28 Oct 2024
Honestly, election markets are more of a reflection of hype and emotion than hard facts. Betting can sway based on trends, but it’s not a guarantee.
La_Tatiana28 Oct 2024
The truth is, betting markets and polls are measuring slightly different things. Polls reflect public opinion, while betting odds factor in public perception and money flows. Bookies often adjust odds to balance bets, so they’re not necessarily ‘predicting’ the winner but rather hedging against their own losses.
AcquariousTheFish28 Oct 2024
Yes, bookies and pollsters don’t always align. Betting odds reflect where people think the momentum is or the hype, not necessarily what will happen. Markets can be reactionary, while polls focus on trends and demographics.
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