March Madness betting models—how data can predict the Final Four

March Madness is always a wild ride, but if there's one thing I love, it's using data to cut through the chaos. Predicting the Final Four isn't just about gut feelings—it's about crunching numbers and spotting patterns. And trust me, the numbers tell some interesting stories.

Why data matters in March Madness betting​

If you're serious about making smart bets, you need to look beyond the hype. One of the best predictive tools out there is KenPom ratings, which evaluate teams based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Historically, teams that rank in the top 20 offensively and have a combined offensive + defensive ranking under 40 tend to go deep in the tournament.

Who fits the model in 2025?​

Right now, a few teams are standing out:

• Houston Cougars – Elite defense, consistent play, and a history of making deep runs.
• Duke Blue Devils – A strong offense led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg.
• Auburn Tigers – A bit of a wild card, but their SEC dominance and offensive strength make them a sleeper pick.

I’ve been running some of my own models, and Houston keeps showing up as a Final Four lock. Duke has the talent, but can they stay consistent? Auburn is the biggest risk, but if they get hot at the right time, they could shock everyone.

Betting models vs. Madness​

No matter how good your model is, March Madness is unpredictable. The single-elimination format means one bad game can send a top team packing. That’s why I always hedge my bets—balancing data with a bit of tournament intuition.

Anyone else using stats-heavy models for their brackets or betting strategies? I’d love to compare notes!