Work out the real expected value of a deposit bonus once you factor in the wagering requirement, game contribution, and house edge.
Every casino welcome bonus carries a wagering requirement. a multiple of the bonus (or deposit plus bonus) that you must bet through before any winnings can be withdrawn. The bonus only has real value if you can clear the playthrough without losing more than the bonus is worth. This calculator works out whether that's possible at the assumptions you enter.
Enter your deposit, the bonus amount, the wagering multiplier, what counts as the wagering basis (bonus only vs deposit + bonus), the house edge of the game you'll play, and the contribution percentage that game gets toward clearing. The calculator returns the expected loss from running the required wagering, the net expected value of the bonus, and the break-even house edge. the maximum edge at which the bonus is still profitable.
Six typical bonus scenarios with a $100 deposit:
| Bonus | Wagering | Basis | Game edge | Contribution | Net EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 30× | D+B | 4% | 100% | −140.00 |
| 100 | 30× | Bonus only | 4% | 100% | −20.00 |
| 50 | 25× | Bonus only | 3% | 100% | +12.50 |
| 200 | 40× | Bonus only | 0.5% | 10% | −200.00 |
| 25 | 20× | Bonus only | 3% | 100% | +10.00 |
| 100 | 35× | D+B | 2.5% | 100% | −75.00 |
The second-biggest variable is the game contribution. Most slots count 100% toward wagering, but blackjack, baccarat, and video poker often count 10-25% or are excluded entirely. A "low-house-edge clear" using blackjack at 0.5% edge sounds appealing, but if blackjack only contributes 10%, you have to bet through 10× the wagering requirement to clear it. At that point the small per-bet edge advantage is wiped out by the volume of action required.
A cashable bonus can be withdrawn after the wagering is cleared. A sticky bonus stays with the casino. you can only withdraw your winnings, not the bonus itself. Sticky bonuses are common in higher-roller offers and reload bonuses. Their EV calculation is different: instead of "bonus − expected loss", you're effectively running a free shot at a multiplier without keeping the principal. This calculator assumes a cashable bonus; for sticky bonuses, treat the bonus as gone the moment you accept it and only count net winnings above the deposit.
